Pointing to a striking set of numbers on a Power Point graph this afternoon, Berrien County Health Department Health Officer Nicki Britten has sounded the alarm regarding the significant rise in the number of coronavirus cases locally in the pandemic, joining Spectrum Health Lakeland’s Dr. Loren Hamel in cautioning about what the future may hold if the pace continues unabated.
Britten says that in April and May and again in July what we thought were large numbers of people impacted with COVID now look almost flat compared to the soaring rate of transmission currently being experience — an eight-fold increase in this current wave.
In the spring of the year Britten says we averaged 20 new people testing positive for the virus every day. That number now exceeds 100 per day and is growing exponentially. Britten cites a “considerable uptick since the beginning of October — actually an eight-fold increase in the number of cases per day as compared to October 2nd. She says there is also a three-fold increase in the number of hospitalizations locally, but only about a 1.5-fold increase in the amount of testing.
Britten warns, “This is not just about more testing, as a lot of people continue to argue. This marks a significant increase in the levels of transmission, and it could be dramatically different by Thanksgiving if people don’t change their habits and do what needs to be done to stop the spread by wearing masks, washing hands frequently, social distancing,” and refusing to continue the spread through large gatherings.
Dr. Hamel says, “What we’ve been worried about, and what we’ve been warning about is now happening, and it puts our capacity at the hospital at serious risk going forward.” He says there are now about 50 inpatient COVID cases per day, and he projects that at the current rate that could reach 65 per day in the next week to 10 days if the transmission rate doesn’t slow down by people doing what needs to be done to halt the spread.
Hamel says that Spectrum Health Lakeland has sufficient PPE, “However, our staff is now being impacted, and if it continues we will run out of the ability to hand other health care needs from non-COVID patients soon.” He adds, “I implore you, now more than ever before, mask up, sanitize, and stay out of large family and friends gatherings.”
Meeting the demands of health care needs of an every day nature will be in jeopardy if hospital staff members continue to be taxed by COVID case rises. Hamel says we’re not in this alone, it’s happening all over the state and nation, and so far we’ve been able to handle things, “but we’re rapidly approaching the condition where our staff will not be able to handle it,” and that worries health care officials everywhere.
Both Britten and Hamel report that testing that had averaged 550 to 600 tests now has increased to 850 to 900, but that is nowhere near the same rate of advancement as the transmission of the virus which has grown exponentially. In fact, Hamel suggests that some people now fear getting tested out of the concern that they’ll be told to self quarantine. He contends that the actual case count is likely even higher than the alarming numbers being posted because of people who have gone untested or are asymptomatic.
The rapid rate of transmission is community-based, largely driven by people who ignore the health guidelines and “continue to expand their social bubble by having larger groups of family and friends over for dinner or parties or whatever.” Hamel says there is very little in-hospital transmission, and Britten says that because young people 18 and under, 12 and under, don’t transmit nearly as much as older people, the serious threat comes from family gatherings, further warning about keeping holiday celebrations on the down low to help lower the rate of transmission.
Hamel says that if the community can’t start to bring the infection rate down, “staffing challenges will become more real and space challenges at the hospital will follow a few weeks later.” He says the real severe challenge will be faced over the next 14 to 21 days in our region.
Asked about the fear of another stay home order, Britten confessed that she doesn’t have a crystal ball or a direct line to the minds of state health officials, but admits that there could be more stringent orders if rates don’t abate. She says, “a new stay home order is not necessarily an absolute inevitability, and nobody wants that and the impact it has on businesses and the economy, however if we continue to double every two weeks we will run into capacity issues. It is all of our jobs to bend the curve again, to flatten it and slow the rate of transmission.” While a shutdown is always a potential consideration, it can be avoided if people will do what’s right, and “we won’t have to resort to that extreme measure.” Britten warns, “Everyone needs to collectively think about that.”
Addressing the promise of a forthcoming vaccine, Dr. Hamel says it will still be months before such an option is widely available and “while it’s great to remain excited for a vaccine, it is much better for us all to be diligent in avoiding the spread,” of the virus by doing what needs to be done to curtail it.
Ordinarily Dr. Hamel would have 15 family members over for a large family celebration of Thanksgiving, but he says that will not happen this year, and asks everyone else to consider that same stance, urging everyone to be very careful.
Britten says she hopes that “this can all simply be a memory by next Thanksgiving.”
